Sox/Yanks

Now that Beltran has ended up on the other side of NY and most of the major moves are done, for now, I’ll do my comparison of the 2 teams. I’ve already done an in depth analysis on our team a few entries ago under “What Have We Got”, so I won’t get into all of that again here. I’ll give my analysis of the Yankees and then compare the 2 after.

I’m not afraid. The fear left me for good on October 20th, 2004. Well, it was never really a fear, more like a feeling of uneasiness. Just that feeling that, no matter how evenly matched these teams seemed to be, no matter what was going on, it would always end up with something going horribly wrong for the Sox, and unbelievably right for the Yankees.

That feeling is gone now. In its place is a feeling of complete confidence. I’m a believer in karma, and I truly believe that the karma has begun to shift to the other side. Not just because of what happened during the 2004 ALCS, but also because of what had been happening up to that point.

Starting 2 years ago when both teams were vying heavily for the services of Jose Contreras and then last off-season when both were trying to trade for Javier Vazquez. In both instances the Yanks “won”. Not because of a lack of effort on our part. This isn’t a case of us making the right moves; it’s a case of us not being able to make the move we wanted to make and then having it work out in our favor.

On paper these 2 teams look pretty evenly matched to me, with both having a good amount of question marks. It’s the examples above that give me the confidence that we will find more answers to our questions then they will.

Starting Pitching

It looks like they will be going into the “05” season with a rotation consisting of Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, Jarret Wright, and Kevin Brown. I realize that I may be stretching things a bit here, but I honestly believe I can legitimately throw a question mark on each one of those guys.

The Big Unit is 41 years old. He has no cartilage in one of his knees (I forget which one), despite the great career numbers, he’s coming back to the AL for the first time in 7 years, and he’s never pitched in the kind of pressure and under the kind of scrutiny that he will in NY. THAT got off to a great start, didn’t it?

More than likely none of this is going to matter and he’ll be a very effective pitcher this year and for the rest of his contract, but you just never know.

Moose only managed 169 innings last year with a 4.59 ERA in what was probably the worst year of his career. This is the first time in 10 seasons he has not managed to go over 200 innings. Combine that with the fact that he’s now 36 and maybe all those innings are beginning to catch up to him.

Carl Pavano has had ONE good season. That season happened to be last season, which is what netted him that big payoff in NY. This is, yet another pitcher that we tried to get and ended up losing out to the Yankees. I personally think this one is going to end up very similar to Contreras and Vazquez, further strengthening my belief that the karma is changing.

This guy has spent all of his 7 seasons in the NL pitching for the Expos and the Marlins. He’s never pitched under this kind of pressure. Okay, he put up some very impressive post-season numbers in helping the Marlins win the WS in “03”, but other than that and his “04” regular season, he hasn’t done very much. I COULD argue that he’s coming into his prime and what we saw last season was a preview of that, but I think that changing leagues, facing much tougher lineups, and pitching in the pressures of NY are going to turn him into a very mediocre pitcher at best.

You can see my very low opinion of what Jarret Wright will bring to this team a few entries below.

I think Kevin Brown is just about done. I do admit, I also felt that way about him last year, and he ended up posting some very good numbers before he battled a clubhouse wall and lost. But when you look at the recent injury problems this guy has had and combine it with the fact that he’ll be 40 this spring, I just don’t see him making it through the season or being very effective when he IS in there.

Overall this should be a decent starting rotation, but I think it’s already being overrated, and it definitely can be beat.

Bullpen

Although it may SEEM like Rivera had an off year, in truth, he was right around where he always is. He threw 78 2/3 innings, which is about average for him. His ERA was 1.95 and he saved 53 games, only blowing 4 of them. His walks were up a little but it didn’t really affect what he was doing. With the exception of those 2 blown saves against us, he was lights out in the playoffs as usual.

It was those 2 blown saves against us, as well as the home run by Mueller on July 24th that made it look like he wasn’t the dominant pitcher he is. And even with those 2 blown saves in the playoffs, he only gave up the tying run, one of which was unearned, and still went on to dominate us for a couple of innings after.

This guy is the best closer in the history of the game and there’s no reason to think he won’t continue to be this season.

Torre’s bullpen problems came when he was trying to get the outs before Rivera. He had to go to Rivera for 2 innings quite a few times but that was really nothing new. It was when he couldn’t use Rivera like that and had to rely on someone else that he had problems.

Tom Gordon threw more innings (almost 90) than he ever had as a reliever. Despite that, he was very effective in the regular season and seems to have completely recovered from the arm surgery he had that ended his career with us. It wasn’t until the playoffs that all the innings seemed to have caught up with him and he wasn’t very effective, particularly against us.

Paul Quantrill was very effective early on, but he had some arm problems because of the workload and had a very tough second half.

With the exception of these 2 guys, he had nothing, which is what forced him to use these 2 more than he wanted. He got a little help from Worcester native and “Kapler Choker” Tanyon Sturtze, but even he wasn’t very effective.

He’s going to need some help this year and it’s debatable whether he’s gotten it. Steve Karsay comes back from yet another arm injury. This guy was one of the most highly touted prospects in the league back in the mid 90’s before he was slowed by injuries. When he’s not hurt, he’s very good, but with the exception of a couple of innings at the end of last season, he hasn’t pitched since “02”, and with his history of arm trouble there’s no guarantee of anything here.

They also brought Mike Stanton back after he spent a couple of seasons with the Mets. He’s a little older now, 38 this summer, but he was still pretty effective for the Mets so he should be able to fill that lefty role that they were missing last year well enough. I’m sure they’ll also be looking for him to take some innings from Quantrill and Gordon.

They managed to snag Felix Rodriguez from the Phillies for Kenny Lofton. This guy could really help shoulder the workload and was a great pickup by Cashman.

There are questions. Is Quantrill going to recover and become an effective pitcher again? Will Gordon show any ill effects from the amount of work he handled last season? Can Karsay come back? Is Stanton still going to be effective?

More than likely their bullpen should be pretty solid, and Torre should have many more options than he had last year.

Offense

Their offense is going to be at the top of the league, even without Beltran. There are still questions though. I’m going to go by position since there are a few question marks on who the starters will be and it’s tough to figure out what batting order he’ll use.


Let’s face it. Jorge Posada hits, hits for power, drives in runs, gets on base, and always seems to kill US. He’s one of the top 3 or 4 catchers in the game. This season probably isn’t going to be any different. Bastard.

Jason Giambi or Tino Martinez will play first base. Both of these guys are declining. It’s very tough to figure out what they’ve got with Mr. Balco. First of all, there are questions as to whether they will keep him, and if so, will he play? And if he plays, how well will he play? Since we haven’t seen him hit since he’s been off the “roids”, we don’t know. If he does play, he’ll probably see more time at DH because of Tino.

In Tino they have a fan favorite coming back. Even though his numbers have declined, they really haven’t declined that much. This guy still manages to get the job done, especially against us (or so it seems) and he’ll probably thrive on coming back to NY. I’d rather take my chances against Giambi if I had the choice.

Tony Womack is a solid hitter who can get on base and steal some bases. He should be a nice bottom of the lineup guy; although I’m not convinced he’s any better than Cairo was last year. With the exception of hits and SB their numbers were very similar last year and Cairo had 200 less AB’s, as he had to fight for playing time early against Enrique Wilson.

Despite what we want to think, Rodriguez did not have a bad year last year. All of his numbers were down from what we’re used to, but he still had a better year than 95% of the hitters in this league, and most of the bad stuff happened early in the year when the entire team was slumping and he was probably just getting himself adjusted to the culture shock. He’ll probably be back to his old self again this year, which will just give us even more reason to hate him.

Derek Jeter is another guy who gave us the illusion that he had a bad year, when in fact, he ended up having the same type of season he always has. The OBP was a little lower than normal, but most of that is the result of the horrible slump he endured at the beginning of the season. Once he finally put that behind him, he got really hot and then did what he always does, which is hit, get on base, and lead the team to victory. His power numbers were actually his highest in quite a while with 44 doubles and 23 home runs. This guy brings so much more to this team than just his numbers though. His leadership is invaluable, he almost always finds a way to win, and usually seems to find a way to beat us. I hate him.

Bernie Williams may not have the range in center that he used to have, but he can still hit. He doesn’t hit for average or get on base like he used to, but he still helps the team and always seems to manage to come up with the big hit.

When I look at Hideki Matsui’s numbers I’m a little amazed. I expect them to be much better than they are. Not that they’re bad (they’re actually very good), it just seems like he did so much more to me. After the first 3 games of the ALCS I was convinced that we were never going to get him out again. That Pedro buzz ball that knocked him on his ass early in game 4 seemed to put a stop to that though. This guy can hit and he can play this game. His home run, BA, OBP, and Slugging all improved in his second year and will probably continue to improve.

I’m not a big fan of Gary Sheffield. He’s quite an impressive hitter, but he always had a little too much to say for my tastes. I admit I was impressed by how much pain he endured in his shoulder last season and the numbers he put up despite that. It should be interesting to see how he handles the Balco problems. How much of what he was doing was a result of using steroids? Personally, I believe he probably didn’t use steroids very much, most (probably all) of what he’s done is just a result of his natural ability, and he’ll probably continue to do it.

Ruben Sierra is some kind of ageless wonder. He can still hit and will probably still help the team in a limited role as he did last season. How much time he actually gets at DH will depend on what they decide to do with Giambi, and how much Torre decides to trust Williams in center.

Defense

Posada is one of the best behind the plate. Martinez is a very good defensive first baseman. Womack is solid at second. Despite the fact that his range seems to be a bit limited, Jeter seems to be right around the league average in fielding percentage every year and usually makes the plays. Rodriguez is an above average 3rd baseman. Matsui seems to be very sound fundamentally and makes most of the plays. Williams’ range is declining in center and he’s not going to get to all the balls he used to. Sheffield has a strong arm in right, which comes from being a former SS and 3rd baseman. Overall, the defense shouldn’t cost them very many games.

Bench

This could be a problem. Again, what happens with Giambi will have a big affect here. If he’s the DH, they’ve got a weapon coming off the bench to hit in Sierra. After that, they don’t have much. Flaherty is fine as a backup for Posada, but he can’t be expected to do anything when he’s in there. But then again, there aren’t many teams who have a backup catcher that is a good enough hitter to actually be used in the DH role against certain pitchers and can be counted on to pinch hit if necessary. I guess we’re just lucky.

They have no one of note to backup their middle infielders, and their 4th outfielder is Bubba Crosby. This guy was a highly touted prospect at one time, but he doesn’t have much ML experience and wasn’t able to do anything with the AB’s he did manage to get. They’ll probably use him to spell Williams by playing him in left and moving Matsui to center. I’m guessing Cashman will come up with another name of two to fill in the pine.

Management

Torre’s one of the best in the game and I’d take him on my team in a second. Come to think of it, despite the fact that they’re Yankees, there are very few players over there that I wouldn’t want on my team. Mel Stottlemyre is very good at getting a lot out of a pitching staff. Donnie Baseball took a lot of heat for the early hitting slump the team was in last year, but they certainly managed to come out of it with no problems. It’s probably too early in his career as a hitting coach to blame or credit him for what happened last year. I will say this about him though; he was the only Yankee that I have ever admitted to liking, while he was actually playing for them. It’s too bad his back problems ended up cutting his career short.

Head to Head

So, how do these 2 teams stack up against each other? I think they are very evenly matched. They were separated by 3 games last year and I think they will be right within that same margin again. They both have starting pitching staffs with some question marks that could put either one of them anywhere from the best staff in the league, to somewhere in the top half of the league. The same goes for the bullpens.

Both teams have great offenses and they should both be at the top in all the categories. They’re both full of patient hitters who will take a lot of pitchers, get on base a lot, and wear down a lot of pitching staffs. They both have solid defenses that should hold their own.

The head to head battles should be nothing less than what we’ve witnessed over the last couple of years, and I will boldly predict that we’ll be right back at it in October battling each other for the AL title.

Who ends up in first is going to depend on how we each handle the other teams. For some reason last season the Orioles had our number and that was the difference between us.

Both of these teams are capable of winning 100 games and they will both be right around there. Despite what a lot of people seem to think, I don’t think the Yankees will improve much, if at all, on their record of last year. The Sox, on the other hand, could very well pick up a few more wins.

As it always does in baseball, it comes down to the pitching (and the karma, of course). Whichever teams pitching staff has the least amount of holes is the team that pulls it out. Being the optimist that I am, and believing that the karma has shifted, I will say that the Sox pitching will work out better for them and in the end we will win the division and again beat them in ALCS.