NLCS

So, I got the NL right, although it was certainly the easier of the 2 leagues. I’ll do the ALCS tomorrow, once tonight’s game determines who gets to go to Chicago.

Before I start the NLCS, I need to talk a little about yesterday’s game. That was unbelievable. I picked the Astros in 4 but I’m not sure if I was right or not. Although last night was officially the 4th game, it took 18 innings to play, and the Astros used a starter for the last 3, so it was almost like it took them 5 games to win it.

It also took them 23 players. Out of 25 guys on the roster, Garner had to use 23 of them. The only players he didn’t use were Oswalt who pitched game 3 and Pettitte who was scheduled to pitch game 5 if necessary. That box score is one of the craziest things I’ve ever seen. Catcher Brad Ausmus actually played 1B for an inning and then went back to catcher. He also happened to hit a game tying home run with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th; which of course was after Lance Berkman got them to within one with the grand slam the inning before.

When Garner put Chris Burke in to pinch run for Berkman in the 10th, I was thinking, this is going to come back and bite him in the ass. Then Burke ends up hitting the game winning home run in the 18th.

The Rocket got a chance to redeem his game 2 start and add to his legend by pitching the final 3 innings giving up only 1 hit, and even bunted a runner over in the bottom of the 14th because Garner had no one else to do it.

Games like this are the reason why I love this sport so much.

Now on to the NLCS

This is a tough call. The Cardinals have the most complete team in the NL. They do everything well, starting pitching, bullpen, defense, and they have an offense that can score runs many different ways. They dominated the regular season and were obviously built for the long race. As good as they were in the regular season and in the first round, there are some things that Cardinals fans should be concerned about.

Game 1 starter Chris Carpenter gave up 22 earned runs in his last 4 regular season starts, including 5 against the Astros in his last start of the season. His 241 innings are the most he’s ever thrown. He did shut out a weak Padres offense for 6 innings in game 1 of the NLDS, but he had to leave after throwing just 90 pitches because of dehydration. These are obvious signs of a long season catching up to him.

Game 2 starter Mark Mulder is not even a lock yet to start because of the line drive he took off his left (throwing arm) bicep in his start against the Padres. It’s still so bruised that he’s questionable to make his start. It’s not likely he’ll be the same pitcher whether he starts that game or the next one, and he also had a couple of rough outings in his final 2 starts of the season, after pitching over 200 innings.

Matt Morris finished off the regular season by giving up 5 runs in 3 innings and he only had 2 quality starts out of his last six. Basically, what I’m getting at here, is that their top 3 arms are tired. Their other 2 starters, Jeff Suppan and Jason Marquis have not pitched in games since September 25th and October 1rst respectively; so all that rust can’t be good.

As good as the bullpen was all season, and it was very good, they all gave up late inning runs against the Padres in that series. And since they wrapped up their series on Saturday and don’t begin the next one until Wednesday it will mean that a total of 4 days will have gone by before any of them pick up a ball again. That’s a lot of time for a reliever. They also lost one of their top set up men, Al Reyes, for the playoffs (and probably next year) after he tore a ligament in his elbow during the second to last game of the season.

Their offense should be fine, although Larry Walker’s knee is banged up, which could affect his hitting and fielding, but they are going to have to go up against 3 of the best starters and one of the top closers in the league.

This thing could not have worked out any better for the Astros, even if they did have to use one of their top starters to finish off the Braves last night.

They have Andy Pettite lined up to start game 1 on Wednesday. Even though he’ll be going on 2 extra days rest, that shouldn’t be that big of a deal this time of year, in fact it might even be a benefit.

Because he had to pitch 3 innings last night, they lose Clemens for game 2 on Thursday, but that works out okay because they get to start Roy Oswalt on regular rest. If you can’t have Roger Clemens start game 2, you probably can’t find a better pitcher than Oswalt to take his place.

And then, not only does Clemens come back in game 3 on Saturday, but also he gets an extra day of rest to make sure he is completely recuperated from pitching twice in 4 days.

Since every pitcher in the bullpen had to pitch last night and they don’t start their series until Wednesday, they have the best of both worlds. They all get 2 days to rest and they’ll all be sharp and ready to go when they’re called on.

They may not be able to score a lot of runs but they have some guys that can hit, led by Morgan Ensberg and Lance Berkman. They managed to score 25 runs in 4 games against the Braves, and at this point, I’m not convinced that the Cardinals pitching will be any more than slightly better than what they faced against Atlanta.

And besides, in the post-season it’s all about pitching. Any team that can run out Pettitte, Oswalt, and Clemens 1-2-3, and finish it off with Brad Lidge, is a team that can go a long way into October, and that’s what I think will happen here.

This should be another epic battle like these 2 teams waged against each other last year, although I think the outcome will be different. It should take 7 games again, but this time the Astros will come out on top.