I’ll start with one of the biggest questions left this off-season. Minky or Millar? I really like both guys but I think Minky is a better fit on this team.
On the field, Minky is one of the best at first, if not THE best. He catches everything around the bag and is known to make some spectacular plays. This pitching staff is going to be getting a lot of ground balls and having Minky over there making the plays will make all of them better.
At the plate, he’s a left-handed batter who drives the ball. He can hit for average, get on base, put a few out, and he will definitely drive in his share. With the rest of the bats we have in this lineup we don’t need a typical power hitting first baseman. The fact that he is left-handed should also give Youkilis a chance to get some at bats against left-handed pitchers.
Youk is here to stay and he’s going to need to get his share of playing time. Francona will have him work out at first base this spring and he will be Mueller’s backup at third. How much time he gets at first will depend on who is starting there and how well he adapts to the position.
If it’s Millar at first, then Youk is probably relegated to a backup corner man who sees no more than one to two games a week between the two positions. But if it’s Minky, then Youk has a very good chance to become the right-handed half of a platoon at first, with Minky coming in late for defense on days that Youk starts. Plus, of course, he’ll still see some time over at 3rd. I think this is a better situation, as it will help keep Youk fresh and give him more opportunity to develop. Of course, this will all depend on how well Youk can handle the right side of the infield.
I suspect that both Francona and Theo are thinking along the same lines and they’re going to work hard at trying to trade Millar.
Once this situation is resolved, this team is more or less set. The few questions left (all revolving around pitching) really won’t be answered until spring training at the earliest and some maybe not until the first couple of months of the season.
Starting Pitching
6 starters, at least 6 questions. It may take some time before this rotation pans out, but here’s what I think.
Schilling will be back around late April/early May. He will be completely healed and ready to go. He will, at the very least, equal his numbers of this season and very possibly better them now that he won’t be pitching with a nagging ankle injury all year. Obviously he might be a little shorter on wins since he will miss a few starts at the beginning, but everything else should be there.
Wells will continue to put up the solid numbers he always does. He seems to be ageless, and with the exception of a few freak injuries and minor back problems, he also seems to be healthy. The back may cause him to miss a start here or there, but he should be right in it all year and should continue to come up big in key games, as he has been known for throughout his career.
Clement should also be a very solid starter for us. I suspect he will be a nice number 3, putting up an ERA right around 4.00. He should manage to give us 200 innings and should really help this team win when he’s in there.
Wake will do what he always does, which is whatever is needed to help the team. I think he will be called on a lot this year to do just that. With the possibility of having 6 starters, I suspect he could find himself in the “first guy out of the pen” roll if all of them end up healthy and ready to go. He’s one of the most respected players in the game for his willingness to do whatever he’s called upon to do.
Arroyo could also end up as the one going to the pen if all starters are ready. This guy really came a long way last year and going to the pen could hurt his development as a starter. He’s probably the better option to go to there, but it might not be the best thing for him. Either way, he should continue to develop and be a strong contributor.
Wade Miller is the wild card here. If this guy’s shoulder is really sound then this could be the absolute steal of the free agent season. He could very well replace all of the numbers Pedro would have given us this year. He was one of the best pitchers in the game before the shoulder problem developed last year. I think Sox management is convinced he’ll be ready to go by May or June at the latest, and his shoulder should hold up and give him the chance to get back to where he was.
Overall, I think this starting rotation is going to be right up at the top in the league. I don’t see any other rotation that’s as solid 1-5 as this one is. If the Yanks get RJ, then they will probably be the only one that’s better.
Bullpen
Foulke is one of the best in the game. Both Embree and Timlin are solid and should each have at least another year in them. They are both more effective if they don’t have to pitch as many innings as they did this year, and they will need someone to shoulder that extra burden for them next season. Losing Williamson really hurt them this year and someone will need to replace those innings.
Matt Mantei could be the man. If he’s recovered from his June surgery to remove a bone spur in his shoulder he could be the perfect compliment to help out in the 7th and 8th innings. This is a big if though, as he’s had other problems in the past that have prevented him from putting up big numbers and big innings.
John Halama should be a very useful guy to have around. He should give us innings out of the pen, where he has always been very effective, and can spot start when necessary, which will probably happen a lot at the beginning of the season while we’re waiting for all of our starters to heal. His numbers are deceptive. The problem is that most of the teams he’s been on have been forced to use him as a starter when he is much better out of the pen. If we can keep him where he belongs he will be a big help to this team.
We’ll have the usual number of minor leaguers and non-roster invitees competing for the final couple of spots. And the 10 million dollar man BK (assuming Theo doesn’t somehow manage to dump him, maybe he can actually contribute something).
A lot of the effectiveness will depend on a few things. Can Mantei come back, and if not who do we get to pick up those innings? Do all the starters come back, and if so who goes to the pen? This has the potential to be anywhere from one of the top pens in the league, to a problem in trying to fill the 7th and 8th innings without having to use Embree and Timlin too much and have them lose their effectiveness.
The jury’s still out on this one, and it’s likely that Theo is not done gathering arms.
Infield Defense
The question mark at first base will have a slight impact on the infield defense. Minky is so much better than Millar. Not that Millar’s bad, it’s just that Minky is great. He actually makes the other 3 infielders better. Having Minky there increases the range on the right side of the field. Also knowing that he’s going to catch the ball will give the other 3 a lot more confidence and plays will get made that otherwise wouldn’t.
Bellhorn is an average defender at second. He has average range and will make most of the plays within that range. He got a bad (and undeserved) rep this season because Reese is such a great defender that he made it look bad for Bellhorn when it really wasn’t. Bellhorn can handle the position.
Mueller is solid at third. He has good reaction time, and although not a strong arm it is accurate, and he makes the plays.
I haven’t seen Renteria play much, but from what I’ve read he’s a very good shortstop (the gold gloves tell us that). I’ve read that he has decent range, gets to a lot of balls, has a strong throwing arm, and makes the plays, although he’s not as flashy as Cabrera. After watching Nomar and Cabrera over there for the past 7 years we’ll just have to get used to seeing a guy who is very good at his position without the flash. Should be easy enough.
We already know what Varitek can do for a pitching staff, but he’s also a pretty good defensive catcher. He’s better at throwing out base stealers than the stats show. Part of the problem was that for a long time the Sox were using the Joe Kerrigan theory of not worrying about base runners and the pitching staff was not giving their catchers much of chance to throw anyone out. That has changed since Kerrigan left and Tek’s numbers have improved. He’s good at blocking bad pitches and one of the best at blocking the plate.
The overall infield “D” should be very solid even if Millar ends up over at first. With Minky they could end up being above average.
Outfield Defense
Manny is Manny, it’s been said a million times but that’s because it’s true. What else CAN anyone say? He’s not as bad as he makes himself look out there sometimes. He’s learned how to play “the wall” very well. We know he’ll never win a Gold Glove out there, or his even more coveted “Silver Glove”, and there will always be “Manny Moments”, but he makes most of the plays, and occasionally even a spectacular one. Of course for every impressive play he makes there will be an equally unimpressive one to go with it. He also has a better throwing arm than he gets credit for.
When you have “the Lord Our Savior” playing CF for your team, there isn’t much chance of many things going wrong. Damon has the speed to track down a lot of fly balls, although occasionally he seems to get a bad jump on them. He also seemed to have a bit of trouble early this season seeing some of them. That seems to have been corrected once he had his eyesight corrected. He probably has one of the worst throwing arms in the league and will always be run on, but his speed and ability to get to a lot of balls makes up for it.
Nixon is one of the fiercest competitors this sport has ever seen. I don’t think there has ever been a ball hit toward him that he didn’t think he would make the play on. More times than not he’s right. He has good range for a right fielder (although the injuries last year slowed him when he came back) and a strong throwing arm. He gains a lot of his advantage by getting a good jump on the ball and getting himself into position, but it’s mostly his competitiveness and will to make the play that makes him a better than average right fielder. Hopefully he’s completely healed for next season and back to his old tricks out there.
Overall the outfield defense is pretty average but they should help us more than they hurt us.
Hitting
This is going to be one of the top offenses in the league again. We should be right up there again in runs scored, if not at the top. Even IF the Yankees get Beltran (which is not a given), we should be right there with them in offense. As it stands now, we’re better.
Yes, we leave a lot of runners on base, but that’s what happens when you PUT a lot of runners on base. This batting order will be relentless with no easy outs 1through 9. There are a lot of guys who look at a lot of pitches and have high OBP’s and we should be getting into a lot of bullpens early. And there are a lot of ML bullpens that we will be taking advantage of.
I still think our top 4 of Damon, Renteria, Manny, and Big Papi is unmatched.
Damon is one of the best leadoff hitters in the game right now, doing everything that’s expected of one, taking pitches, getting on base, scoring runs, and he can drive them in when needed as well.
Renteria is perfect in the 2 hole, he should be able to do all of the things we need in that spot, move the runner over, get on base, or drive the run in, depending on the situation.
Many is still one of the most feared right-handed hitters in the game, is one of the most complete hitters in the game, and when he gets into one of those zones there’s no stopping him from doing anything.
Ortiz has become one of the most feared left-handed hitters in the game. He’ll get Manny a lot of good pitches to hit and when Manny doesn’t come through he’s right behind him to pick him up. I think the DH role was created with Big Papi in mind. Hitting is all he does, so it’s all he thinks about. He knows that he can’t help the team on the field so he HAS to get the job done at the plate. He has said that because he knows this, he spends a lot of his down time during the game in the clubhouse, looking at video of pitchers he might face and working on his swing.
It doesn’t get much easier after that either. It’ll probably go something like this:
Varitek
Nixon
Mueller
Minky
Bellhorn
Having those 3 switch-hitters (Tek, Mueller, Bellhorn) means the only spot in the order where we will have hitters coming up to the same side of the plate is 2 and 3, with Renteria and Manny. That is a nice edge to have against opposing pitching staffs.
Every one of these guys is a good, patient hitter, who will take a lot of pitches, get on base, and come up with a clutch hit when needed.
Overall this is a killer lineup that will make a lot of pitchers pay.
Bench
This year we had a very deep bench, which was a key factor in winning it all. Theo has done an excellent job of keeping that bench deep again for next year.
Jay Payton is a solid replacement for Kapler as a 4th outfielder and platoon partner for Nixon. He can play all 3 outfield positions well, and he can hit. He should show more power then Kapler did and he should log himself at least 300 AB’s.
Ramon Vazquez should be the perfect backup middle infielder. He’s a solid infielder who is sure handed at both positions. He’s a left-handed hitter who doesn’t hit lefties very well, but he can hit a little against right-handers, which will make him perfect to spell Bellhorn and Renteria.
Youkilis should do well as the backup corner man and possible platoon partner with Minky. “The Greek God of Walks” is an on base machine, as we already know. He can handle third and although he’s unproven at first, he should do fine over there.
I’ve never been happier about the resigning of a bench player than I was when we got Mirabelli to agree to a 2-year deal. As I’ve said before, he could probably have gotten more playing time somewhere else, and probably will here anyway, in an attempt to add to Tek’s longevity. He does everything and more that’s expected of a backup catcher.
The one thing we’re missing is that blazing speed off the bench that we never would have won it without. That was really a luxury that not many teams are lucky to have. We’ve got a couple of guys that can run a little with Payton and Vazquez, but it’s not likely we’ll be able to pick up a guy with the speed and base stealing experience of Roberts. At least not until the trading deadline when the Padres are out of it and we can give up another minor leaguer to get Roberts back (wouldn’t that be something?).
Overall, we go into next season with as strong a bench as we went into this season with.
Clubhouse
We’ve still got our fair share of characters on this team. We lost a few in Pedro, Lowe and Cabrera (and possibly Millar), but we gained a big one in Wells. Personally, I think the biggest detractor from the clubhouse is gone with Pedro going to the Mets. Players say it didn’t bother them but I think that was mostly because they didn’t want to stir things up. Schilling is already admitting that he didn’t like it and I think now that he’s gone we’ll hear from a few more players about it. The “Idiot” mantra is probably gone, but these guys will still pull together and be as close as they were this year.
I have to say, I’ll miss the “Idiot” thing. It was the one time in my entire life of being an idiot that I was actually with the “in” crowd.
Manager and coaches
What can I say here? I disagreed with a lot of things that Francona did this season, but the only thing that matters is he’s the first manager to win a World Series here in 86 years. It’s all forgiven. He’ll probably drive me nuts again this year, but I really won’t care.
Sveum got a bad rep at third because of a couple of bad decisions and a couple of unlucky breaks, but I think he’s learned from it and will be better next year.
The rest of these guys all did their jobs with Papa Jack and Lynn Jones’ eye getting the most notoriety. They should all be back with the exception of Rojas, who may be replaced by Hassleman as bullpen coach. Speaking of the bullpen, I’d still like to know what the hell happened with Dana Lavangie down there.
Management and Ownership
John Henry, Tom Werner and Co. bought the team and won a World Series a few years later. For that they will be gods around here forever. They have shown that they are willing to stop at almost nothing to compete with the Yankees and try to win it all. They have also been very innovative in finding ways to increase seating capacity at Fenway as well as improve the overall atmosphere without detracting from its history and uniqueness. They have made the park and the team even more fan friendly. They have improved public relations, entrenched the team in the community, donated millions and millions of dollars to charities (as well as raised donations from fans and other sources), and they have given back more than could have been expected from them.
They are constantly finding ways to increase revenue and then putting that revenue back into the team. As I’ve said before, Henry is a fan who has made and continues to make his money outside of Fenway. He’s not interested in making money with this team, just winning World Championships. And what’s better is that, as badly as he wants to win, he knows he’s not a baseball man, so, he has hired baseball men, and unlike some other owners (no names need be mentioned), he let’s them do their jobs. As fans, we couldn’t ask for more from an ownership team.
Larry Lucchino may rub some people the wrong way but he is every bit as responsible for all of the above as the rest of them.
Theo and his staff have proven that they know what the hell they are doing, even before they won us a World Championship. He had the guts to make the most unpopular trade in team history (Ruth was sold, not traded) at a time when it was absolutely necessary for him to do it.
He knows his baseball, and he knows how to balance the input from his 2 Bills, top scout Bill Lajoie, and statman, Bill James. He uses all available information to invest his money wisely and he’s not afraid to admit when he makes a mistake (which have been few and far between) and then does something to try to fix it.
He has disengaged himself from the fan he used to be and now runs the team as the business it is. Fortunately for us, the business he happens to be in, is trying to win World Championships.
Overall
If there was ever a team that has a chance at repeating it has to be this one. If we don’t already have what we need to do it, you can be sure Theo will go out and get it when the time comes. This team is going to be a winning team, and not just now but in the near future as well. The only thing we’re really lacking as a franchise is a good farm system. But time, and Theo and his boys, will fix that. I can see only great times ahead for Red Sox Nation.