85 Million

I actually did this about a week ago on another web site, but I figured I would put it here too.

According to the USA Today, the Sox payroll for 2005 was $123,505,125, while the Yankees came in at $208,306,817. That’s a difference of approximately 85 million dollars, and incidentally is more than the payrolls of all but 9 other Major League teams.

Even though both payrolls are way too high (IMO), the Yankees spent almost 85 million more than us to see the same result (knocked out in the first round of the playoffs). I thought it would be interesting to see just what all of that additional money got them in the playoffs:

Randy Johnson $16,000,000, 0 wins, 6.14 ERA
Steve Karsay $6,000,000, Did not play, released in May
Mike Mussina $19,000,000, Lost deciding game, knocked out in 3rd after giving up 5 runs

Paul Quantrill $3,000,000, Did not play, released in June
Alex Rodriguez $26,000,000, 2 hits, 0 RBI in 5 games
Felix Rodriguez $3,150,000, Did not play, did not make ALDS roster
Mike Stanton $4,000,000, Did not play, released in June
Tony Womack $2,000,000, Did not get an at-bat, could not be trusted
Jaret Wright $5,666,667, Did not play, did not make ALDS roster
Total $84,801,692,

So, at one time, King George was good at buying World Series Championships, but now all he seems to be good at buying is crap.

World Series

First, a bit about the LCS’s:

In the ALCS, I got the right team in the correct number of games, but it didn’t go at all like I expected it to. I figured, with the situation the Angels pitching staff was in, that they would get beaten handily in the first 2 games and then never really recover from it.

Instead, Byrd and Washburn pitched very well, kept them in both games, and they managed to win one of them, and if not for a terrible miscommunication by an umpire, they actually might have won both games.

So, instead of being down 0-2, they went back to Anaheim with the split, and in my opinion they actually had the advantage at that point, and I really believed they now had the better chance to win the series. Instead, they came out flat and got swept.

In the NLCS, I got the team, but I had them in seven. This proved to be another epic battle, although not quite as epic as last year, full of great moments and close games.

The Cardinals are a very good baseball team. Their problem both this season and last, is that they ran up against a great pitching staff in the post-season. Last year, they hit the wall of Pedro, Schilling, and Lowe, and this year they had to contend with Pettitte, Oswalt, and Clemens. I just didn’t see any way that they could go through those 3 guys 2 times each and come out with 4 wins, and don’t see it happening for the White Sox either.

The White Sox have a better offense, they have a very good pitching staff, and they have a solid bullpen.

The starting pitching dominated the Red Sox and Angels and were not affected at all by the long layoff between the ALDS and the ALCS, so this one now probably won’t affect them much either. I think it’s a different story with the bullpen though.

Those guys threw a total of 7 pitches (all by Cotts) in the ALCS back in game 1 on the 11th. That’s just too much rest for any bullpen this late in the season (or really any time for that matter) and I think it will have an effect on them. And they certainly cannot expect their starters to continue to throw complete games.

As for the offense, they had trouble scoring runs in the first 2 games against Byrd and Washburn, and those 2 guys are a far cry from Clemens, Pettitte, and Oswalt. You might say that they came into that series a little rusty because of the layoff, but if that was the case, then here they are again.

With the exception of Pettitte in game 1, the Astros starters dominated the Cardinals offense in that series, and Pettitte took a line drive off the knee in batting practice right before the game. If not for that, it’s quite possible the Cards might have been out in four.

Because they didn’t have to go to a seventh game, they are able to line their pitching up again to get the big 3 at the top. Clemens starts game 1, Pettitte game 2, and Oswalt game 3, all on at least 5 days rest, Clemens and Pettitte having six. And having Backe for game 4 isn’t all that bad either, especially at home.

I also think the Astros have the advantage with the DH rule in both parks as well. As usual, the NL has the advantage in the NL park because the AL loses what is usually a key hitter in their lineup; in this case probably Carl Everett. But when they’re in Chicago, I don’t think the AL advantage will be quite as big as it usually is.

Normally the NL adds a guy to their lineup as a DH, who is usually a 4th outfielder or top pinch hitter, in either case, it’s not usually a guy that they can expect to get a lot of offense from. But with the Astros, they have the advantage of adding the bat of Jeff Bagwell. Sure he’s coming off shoulder surgery that hasn’t allowed him to play the field, and he hasn’t been doing anything more than pinch hitting himself, but he’s still a very capable hitter, and given 4 at-bats a game in Chicago, he could make a difference.

No matter what though, this thing comes down to pitching as always. The Astros should be able to win at a minimum, 2 out of every 3 games started by Clemens, Pettitte, and Oswalt, and they get to start all 3 of those guys twice.

The White Sox have everything it takes, and are perfectly capable of winning it all. But like the Cardinals, I don’t see them getting through that top 3 twice and pulling out 4 wins.

I’m going with the Astros in 6, but I will not be surprised if this thing never makes it back to Chicago, and I honestly believe that a sweep is not out of the realm of possibility.

ALCS

Boy was I wrong about this one. I nailed the 2 NL series right down to the number of games in each one, so I guess it was only fitting that I completely blew the AL. I had both the Red Sox and Yankees in 4, the Sox got swept and the Yankees lost in five.

If that was in fact Bernie William’s last game in pinstripes (and maybe ever), my hat's off to him. There is no one out there who has conducted themselves with more class and professionalism over their career, AND he was a helluva player.

ALCS

At the beginning of the playoffs I was going over the different scenarios and when I came to the White Sox/Angels possibility I thought it would be a very even match-up. Circumstances have severely affected the way this thing will shake out.

The Angels have a good ball club. They have good starting pitching, a great bullpen, solid defense, and an offense that can do a lot of things to put enough runs on the board to win most games.

The White Sox could be described very similarly. Their starting pitching might be slightly better, their bullpen might not be quite as good, and their offense can also score a lot of different ways but plays a little less small ball and has a little more thunder.

The biggest difference between these 2 teams right now lies in what happened to each one in their ALDS series.

The White Sox ripped through the Red Sox in 3 games, got on a flight back to Chicago on Friday night, and have been sitting at home since then, working out to stay sharp and hanging around waiting to see who they would get to play. They are completely healthy, rested and refreshed, riding an 8 game winning streak, and ready to go.

The Angels on the other hand have everything going against them. They had to play a tough 5 game series against the Yankees. Because of the rainout on Saturday they had to play game 4 in NY on Sunday, then get on a late flight back to Anaheim to play game 5 last night. They then had to get back on a plane last night to head to Chicago.

If this were the only problem I might be tempted to say it could work to their advantage. After all, they’ve been playing baseball for the last 2 days while the White Sox have been sitting around for the last three. They might be tired, but they’re sharp, and the White Sox may not be. But unfortunately for them, it’s not their only problem; in fact, it’s the least of their problems.

Their rotation is in shambles. Tonight they throw Paul Byrd (who was ripped by the Yankees and is now starting on 3 days rest) against a well-rested, red-hot Jose Contreras. After that, who knows? Jarod Washburn was supposed to start game 4 for them but he had to be scratched because of a throat infection. John Lackey, their best pitcher in the playoffs and down the stretch, had to start in his place on 3 days rest, so he’s not an option. Bartolo Colon, in addition to battling a stiff back, left last nights game in the second inning because of inflammation in his throwing shoulder and might not be available at all for this series. Their number 5 starter, Ervin Santana, had to pitch 5 1/3 innings last night in relief of Colon. If Washburn’s not well enough to start that game, they’ll have to go to the bullpen for all of it. Kelvim Escobar, who was a starter, but hasn’t started since before he went on the DL with elbow problems back in June, isn’t an option because he pitched in both games four and five.

Even if Washburn can go, he’s not going to be strong and he’s also not going to be sharp. He hasn’t started a game since September 24th and hasn’t pitched at all since his 2 innings on October 1rst. In fact, they were actually considering leaving him off the ALDS roster.

With Byrd starting on 3 days rest, and not very effective in his last start, they’re probably going to have to go to the bullpen early tonight, and they will definitely be using a lot of the bullpen tomorrow, it may be all bullpen. They’re probably going to have to take a position player off the roster and put another arm in there, but even that won’t be enough to help.

Their offense hasn’t exactly been lighting it up either. They scored quite a few runs on Yankee misplays and then got to a not very good Yankee bullpen in game three. Now they are going to be going up against much better arms in both the rotation and the bullpen.

But that really doesn’t even matter that much. This game always comes down to pitching; which the White Sox have plenty off, and the Angels don’t right now.

Anything can happen in this game, especially in the playoffs, but I really don’t see this thing getting back to Chicago and I wouldn’t be surprised if the White Sox sweep. I’ll give the Angels one game and say White Sox in five.

NLCS

So, I got the NL right, although it was certainly the easier of the 2 leagues. I’ll do the ALCS tomorrow, once tonight’s game determines who gets to go to Chicago.

Before I start the NLCS, I need to talk a little about yesterday’s game. That was unbelievable. I picked the Astros in 4 but I’m not sure if I was right or not. Although last night was officially the 4th game, it took 18 innings to play, and the Astros used a starter for the last 3, so it was almost like it took them 5 games to win it.

It also took them 23 players. Out of 25 guys on the roster, Garner had to use 23 of them. The only players he didn’t use were Oswalt who pitched game 3 and Pettitte who was scheduled to pitch game 5 if necessary. That box score is one of the craziest things I’ve ever seen. Catcher Brad Ausmus actually played 1B for an inning and then went back to catcher. He also happened to hit a game tying home run with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th; which of course was after Lance Berkman got them to within one with the grand slam the inning before.

When Garner put Chris Burke in to pinch run for Berkman in the 10th, I was thinking, this is going to come back and bite him in the ass. Then Burke ends up hitting the game winning home run in the 18th.

The Rocket got a chance to redeem his game 2 start and add to his legend by pitching the final 3 innings giving up only 1 hit, and even bunted a runner over in the bottom of the 14th because Garner had no one else to do it.

Games like this are the reason why I love this sport so much.

Now on to the NLCS

This is a tough call. The Cardinals have the most complete team in the NL. They do everything well, starting pitching, bullpen, defense, and they have an offense that can score runs many different ways. They dominated the regular season and were obviously built for the long race. As good as they were in the regular season and in the first round, there are some things that Cardinals fans should be concerned about.

Game 1 starter Chris Carpenter gave up 22 earned runs in his last 4 regular season starts, including 5 against the Astros in his last start of the season. His 241 innings are the most he’s ever thrown. He did shut out a weak Padres offense for 6 innings in game 1 of the NLDS, but he had to leave after throwing just 90 pitches because of dehydration. These are obvious signs of a long season catching up to him.

Game 2 starter Mark Mulder is not even a lock yet to start because of the line drive he took off his left (throwing arm) bicep in his start against the Padres. It’s still so bruised that he’s questionable to make his start. It’s not likely he’ll be the same pitcher whether he starts that game or the next one, and he also had a couple of rough outings in his final 2 starts of the season, after pitching over 200 innings.

Matt Morris finished off the regular season by giving up 5 runs in 3 innings and he only had 2 quality starts out of his last six. Basically, what I’m getting at here, is that their top 3 arms are tired. Their other 2 starters, Jeff Suppan and Jason Marquis have not pitched in games since September 25th and October 1rst respectively; so all that rust can’t be good.

As good as the bullpen was all season, and it was very good, they all gave up late inning runs against the Padres in that series. And since they wrapped up their series on Saturday and don’t begin the next one until Wednesday it will mean that a total of 4 days will have gone by before any of them pick up a ball again. That’s a lot of time for a reliever. They also lost one of their top set up men, Al Reyes, for the playoffs (and probably next year) after he tore a ligament in his elbow during the second to last game of the season.

Their offense should be fine, although Larry Walker’s knee is banged up, which could affect his hitting and fielding, but they are going to have to go up against 3 of the best starters and one of the top closers in the league.

This thing could not have worked out any better for the Astros, even if they did have to use one of their top starters to finish off the Braves last night.

They have Andy Pettite lined up to start game 1 on Wednesday. Even though he’ll be going on 2 extra days rest, that shouldn’t be that big of a deal this time of year, in fact it might even be a benefit.

Because he had to pitch 3 innings last night, they lose Clemens for game 2 on Thursday, but that works out okay because they get to start Roy Oswalt on regular rest. If you can’t have Roger Clemens start game 2, you probably can’t find a better pitcher than Oswalt to take his place.

And then, not only does Clemens come back in game 3 on Saturday, but also he gets an extra day of rest to make sure he is completely recuperated from pitching twice in 4 days.

Since every pitcher in the bullpen had to pitch last night and they don’t start their series until Wednesday, they have the best of both worlds. They all get 2 days to rest and they’ll all be sharp and ready to go when they’re called on.

They may not be able to score a lot of runs but they have some guys that can hit, led by Morgan Ensberg and Lance Berkman. They managed to score 25 runs in 4 games against the Braves, and at this point, I’m not convinced that the Cardinals pitching will be any more than slightly better than what they faced against Atlanta.

And besides, in the post-season it’s all about pitching. Any team that can run out Pettitte, Oswalt, and Clemens 1-2-3, and finish it off with Brad Lidge, is a team that can go a long way into October, and that’s what I think will happen here.

This should be another epic battle like these 2 teams waged against each other last year, although I think the outcome will be different. It should take 7 games again, but this time the Astros will come out on top.

Wait Til Last Year

Thanks to mom for the title of this one. I don't know if anyone else said it, but I heard her come up with it first. And now on to the entry.

I’m not ready to write this yet. I knew this team had problems and expecting them to win the World Series again was expecting a whole helluva lot (probably too much), but I also wasn’t expecting them to go out in three. But that’s what happens when you get outplayed in every aspect of the game.

First I need to give credit where credit is due. The Chicago White Sox came into this thing ready to play and ready to win, and that’s exactly what they did. They beat us on the mound, they beat us at the plate, and they beat us in the field.

They got solid starting pitching in all 3 games, they got timely hits when they needed them, most notably Paul Konerko and Tadahito Iguchi, and they were flawless in the field, including a few spectacular plays. And then there was the bullpen. We did not score one run off their bullpen in the entire series. Bobby Jenks was dominating in his 3 innings over 2 games, and tonight in his 3 innings of work, El Duque looked like the El Duque of old in the playoffs with the Yankees.

I admit I did not give this team enough credit. All year long I talked about how their starting pitching was pitching over it’s head and would come down to earth soon, how they took advantage of a weak schedule to win 99 games, and recently how they looked tired and were in for a September/October swoon. I was wrong.

This team is good. In fact, they’re better than good. They have a lot of talent, they do everything well, and they play the game the right way. And it all starts with the fiery manager. I was always an Ozzie fan when he played, and I’m even more of an Ozzie fan now as manager. His critics think he talks too much and gets himself into trouble, but I think it’s just part of his personality and he gets his players to play for him.

At this point, after what I just witnessed, I think they are going to go on to the World Series and they have a good chance of winning it. I hope they do and I’m rooting for them now. The last time they won it was 1917. That means they are now on their 88th year, which is 2 more years than we waited. Their fans certainly deserve it.

So, congratulations to the White Sox, you guys certainly took it to us. Now go finish the job.

As for the Red Sox, that’s another story for another time. There’s a lot to get into there, and a lot of time over the winter to get into it. For now I’ll just say this, it wasn’t our year from day one. We never had the team on the field that we intended to have, yet despite that we still managed to win 95 games and get to the playoffs.

These guys played hard all year and in many instances played hurt. They gave us another fun and exciting season and as a sports fan, that’s really all you can ask for from your team. I’ll talk about individuals at a later date.

As far as the future goes, there are a lot of decisions to be made. Who do we keep? Is Johnny worth the money? Do we trade Manny? Do we bring back Mueller and maybe move Youk to first, or do we let Mueller go and put Youk at third?

There is an entire bullpen to remake, which will hopefully begin with a healthy Foulke. There are some holes in the rotation to fill, which will hopefully begin with a healthy Schilling.

Should Papelbon start or relieve? At first I thought he should start, but after watching what he did in the bullpen over the last month, now I’m not so sure. A lot of it will depend on what happens with Foulke. He could be a closer, but maybe we leave him in the set up role for a couple of years, where he would be a dominant force to get to Foulke. And then there’s Hansen.

No matter what, one thing is certain. This team has a lot of good young arms, and a few good young position players, in the system that will be coming up over the next couple of years to help out. We also have money to spend and a GM who knows how to spend it.

The future of this team is bright and we should be watching a good team take the field every year for a long time.

But for now, the 2005 Boston Red Sox season has come to a close. It didn’t end the way we dreamed it would, and it certainly didn’t end the way we wanted it to. But end it did, and some other team will be the 2005 World Champions.

I’m okay with that. I don’t feel frustrated about it like I have in years past, and I no longer feel the need to yell out, “wait til next year!” Next year will come soon enough, and when it does we’ll be right there looking to get our title back.

Down But Not Out, Again

I’m not putting as much weight on history as everyone else seems to be. Yes, we’ve been here before, and yes, we’ve come through it, more than once. But this is not the same team that came back from 0-3 to beat the Yankees last year, and it’s not the same team that came back from 0-2 to beat the A’s the year before.

The team that beat the Yankees last year had a much better pitching staff than this one. Going into game 4 we were able to throw Lowe (who was at the top of his game), Pedro, Schilling, and Lowe again. In the bullpen, we had the rubber arms of Foulke, Timlin, Embree (who was as good as the rest of them back then), and Myers, as well as starters Wakefield and Arroyo.

This is the reason why we were able to win. Although the Yankees also had good pitching to throw back at us, our pitching was able to keep that offense at bay long enough for our offense to grind out the runs necessary to win.

Now we have to go up against a better pitching staff than the one we faced in the ALCS last year, and we don’t have anywhere near the arms we had to match it. In the rotation, as great as Wakefield has been, he didn’t have it in his last start, and we don’t know what he’ll have today. Schilling is nowhere near the pitcher he was last year, and is still unpredictable. And we don’t even know who to throw in game 5 yet, assuming we even get there.

Although we still have a few good arms in the pen, we don’t have guys that are capable of pulling off what the pen from last year pulled off (I’m not sure ANY pen could ever pull off again what that pen did last year). And the offense is not clicking the way it was for most of the year.

Despite all of this, I don’t have that same feeling of dread that I did after game 3 of the ALCS last year. First of all, we only have to win 3, not four. Second, this isn’t the Yankees. As good as this White Sox team is, and as good as that pitching staff is, I still feel like we can go out there and win the next 3 games.

They didn’t win game 2, we gave it to them. Yes, Iguchi hit the 3 run homer, but Wells hung him a nice fat curveball to hit, and obviously he never would have been in that position if it weren’t for the error. So despite the fact that we’re down 0-2, we should be tied at 1-1, and although that doesn’t help much in the standings, it goes a long way for the confidence. This team knows they didn’t get beat on Wednesday, and they know they can play these guys.

As I mentioned in my last post, if we can get this offense going, we can grind out runs against this pitching staff. Although we haven’t seen Freddy Garcia yet this year, we’ve done it to him in the past, and we’ve done it to Garland already this year. We’ve got the friendly confines of Fenway for the next 2, and if we can get going, that momentum can carry us right back to Chicago on Sunday and keep us going, regardless of who we have starting that game.

The off day might have been just what we needed to get the offense going again, along with Fenway of course. Even though Jenks finished off the last 2 innings on Wednesday we hit some balls pretty hard against him, plus he can be very wild and if we have some patience we can get to him (as well as anyone else in that bullpen). In 3 regular season appearances against us he’s given up 5 runs in 2 innings.

The White Sox are a good team. They ran away with the division early and held on late, getting hot again at the right time, to clinch a well deserved spot in the playoffs. But they can be beat, and our team is certainly capable of doing it. We never throw in the towel and never give up hope. A lot of things have to go right, but as long as we’re still kicking, there’s no reason to believe they won’t.

Finally, I really hope the Fenway Faithful show the love to Graffanino today. This guy has been solid for us since he came over, playing better than anyone expected. He’s made every play at second (minus the obvious), and has come up with some big hits at the plate in key situations. Plus, he stood there forever on Wednesday night and fielded question after question, taking all of the blame himself, which he didn’t need to do.

He was already well respected in the clubhouse and by the reporters, and I think he gained even more after that. Now the faithful need to get behind him and give it to him as well, and I think they will.

GO SOX!!!!

Round One

So, we lost the AL East title. Am I disappointed? Yes. But I’m over it; the most important thing is that we’re in. We’re where we need to be, and that’s really all that matters.

Now that we’re here, what can we do? That’s an easy question to answer. We can do anything that any of these other teams can do. As I look at the post-season entries, I do not see any one team that stands out above the others, I think this thing is completely up in the air and any one of these teams (except the Padres) has the ability to win 11 games. It’s all going to depend on who gets what, and when they get it.

Here’s my prediction for round one, starting with the NL and ending with the Sox:

Cardinals-Padres

The St Louis Cardinals have done it again. They put together another very good team that does everything well, starting pitching, bullpen, offense, and defense, and they took advantage of, and dominated a weak National League. Only 7 of the 16 teams had winning records and of those 7, 2 were only 4 games above .500 and 1 was only 2 above. Not only that, but they also get to take advantage of the fact that the Wild Card Astros are in their division, so they get to face the worst team that I’ve ever seen make the playoffs, the San Diego Padres.

If there were ever a reason to change the way teams make the playoffs, the 2005 NL West is it. This division is absolutely pitiful. It’s so bad that the Padres managed to win it by 5 games with an 82-80 record. As punishment for being so bad, they get to be crushed by the Cards in the first round. They really have no business being in the playoffs, but I’ll be rooting for old friend Dave Roberts anyway.

The Cards should not only win this thing in 3, but they should completely dominate every game. The Pads might be able to steal a win in game one, with Jake Peavy starting for them, but it’s not likely to happen in St Louis.

Astros-Braves

There’s only one team that really scares me in this post season, and that’s the Houston Astros. They’re the only team in this entire post season that has 3 starting pitchers, Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt, and Sox killer Andy Pettitte, that are completely capable of dominating every game they pitch. No other team in this thing has 3 pitchers like that. They also have Brad Lidge at the back end of the pen, and as far as finishing off games goes, it doesn’t get much better than that.

Unfortunately their offense isn’t very strong, it cost them a lot of games this year, and most likely cost Clemens another Cy Young. But they’ve been scoring more runs lately, and with that pitching, they won’t need to score a lot of runs. If they can get a few runs and their starters can get to Lidge, they could very well win the entire thing. As it is, I think they will definitely beat the Braves.

The Atlanta Braves are a great story, probably the best in baseball this year. Bobby Cox will win NL Manager of the Year hands down, for leading this team to it’s 14th straight division title, while using 17 rookies in doing so. But this is not the Braves of old that was known for their dominating rotation. After John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, the rotation drops off severely. Hampton is done for the season, and although Jorge Sosa has done a nice job filling in for him, he’s a little short on experience. Their offense is led by MVP Andrew Jones, but doesn’t have a heck of a lot after that. Their other Jones, Chipper, is having an off year marred by injury, and after that it’s a lot of mixing and matching, and I don’t see it standing up to the Astros pitching.

I think most of these games will be close, but the Astros should take it in four.

Yankees-Angels

The Yankees did it to us again in the regular season. And the amazing thing is they managed to do it despite the fact that only 1 starter, Randy Johnson, managed to stay in the rotation all year. Now they go into the playoffs with a rotation of Mike Mussina, who has a bad elbow, Chien-Ming Wang, a rookie who just came back from a sore shoulder a month ago, Johnson, and Shawn Chacon, a Rockies castoff, who ended up pitching very well for NY. Wang and Chacon could be flip flopped, and Aaron Small goes to the pen.

We all know how many ways they can hurt you with their offense, so that won’t be a problem. Their problem is going to be whether or not the starting pitching and bullpen can get them to Rivera. It’s questionable at this point, Johnson is really the only one who is capable of dominating a good offense and there’s a good chance they will find themselves in quite a few high scoring games.

Fortunately for them, they get the Angels in round one. The Angels have a decent offense, a very good defense, a good starting rotation (according to the stats anyway), and probably the best bullpen in the post season. I don’t think it will be enough to beat the Yankees. They really only have one starter with the capability of dominating a game in Bartolo Colon. Although Jarod Washburn, John Lackey, and Paul Byrd have put up pretty good numbers in the regular season, none of them are good enough to handle an offense like the Yankees, same with Ervin Santana if he ends up starting in place of Byrd. It doesn’t matter how good the Angels bullpen is, they’re going to find themselves too far behind in the late innings of most of these games and are not going to be able to make up the difference.

They probably have their best chance at winning the game 1 match-up of Colon against Mussina, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they get swept again. I’ll give them one game and say Yankees in four.

The Battle of the Sox

The Chicago White Sox are damn lucky to even find themselves in the playoffs, let alone having the best AL record and gaining home field advantage throughout. They came very close to blowing a 15 game division lead, seeing it shrink all the way to 1 ½ at one point, and only ended up being 4 games better than the Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels. This is a good team, but it’s not as good as their record shows. They took advantage of playing 37 games against the Royals and Tigers going 27-10 against them. Jon Garland, Mark Buehrle, and Freddy Garcia have all pitched a lot of innings this year, and they’ve shown some signs in September that it might be wearing on them. Although Jose Contreras had a dominating September, but he’s never been able to pitch well against us.

They have some pretty good arms in that bullpen, but there is no one that can come in and slam the door. They don’t make many mistakes on defense, and that offense, lead by Paul Konerko can put up some runs.

On the other hand, we have the same problems that have been plaguing us all year, pitching, both starting and the pen. We just have no idea what we’ll get from any of our starters, Clement, Wells, Wakefield, or Schilling. All are capable of going out and handling that offense. Arroyo strengthens a pen that is right now being anchored by Papelbon and Timlin. That might be all we have out there, but it also might be all we need, plus Myers to get the lefty out.

We can’t expect the offense to go out there and score the kinds of runs they did all season, but we can expect them to grind it out against the opposing starter and get into the pen. We’ve already done it this year to all of the starters Chicago will throw against us.

I think this might be the most evenly matched series in the first round. Most of it will depend on what each team gets from their starters. I think our offense will be able to grind out just enough from their pitching, and our pitching will be able to keep their offense down enough to win it in four.